Key Predictions for IT Organisations

Gartner recently published its report on Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and beyond. The ones that affect my life are ordered below by decreasing importance:

· By 2012, at least one-third of business application software spending will be as service subscription instead of as product license. I wonder why Gartner is sounding so cautious about the 33%. As my CTO says it makes huge financial and technological sense for the customer (no bulk payments, no obsolete lines of code hanging about the warehouse) and the vendor (recurring income, better ways to innovate). For service providers like us, this just shows that we are in the right direction.

· By 2012, 50 per cent of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home in favour of other devices. This prediction affects me two ways – as a laptop lugger it saves my shoulders, but as a business architect it adds an additional facet - One needs to necessarily gear all applications for greater portability across devices: mobile, laptop, blackberry, treo, and ‘Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level’.

· Through 2011, the number of 3-D printers in homes and businesses will grow 100-fold over 2006 levels. This is a VOW idea. It sounds sci-fi and the 3-D printer Gartner is speaking about is more like a manufacturing unit “ …a device that will carve the design out of a block of resin.” I haven’t seen a single one yet of a thing that’s going to grow 100 fold in three years time. Was 2006 figure 10 units…available in NASA labs etc?

· By 2011, suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials via an audited process to retain preferred supplier status. Even the Vatican does a tree penance. How long will the Enterprise be left behind?

· By 2012, 80 per cent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology. This implies that from here on, there need not be a greater outlay towards MS office each year, and the TCO is actually set to some down.

· By 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in Computers. Doubling the market share means capturing around 15% market. Impressive. But that shouldn’t bother me much as I don’t report to Bill Gates.